What are the chances of a plane crash? The real numbers, explained calmly

If you're a nervous flyer, you've probably searched this question at 2 a.m. before a trip. So let's answer it once, properly, with the official numbers, and then look at why your brain keeps asking anyway.

The latest numbers

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) publishes airline safety figures every year. For 2024:

• About one accident for every 880,000 flights. "Accident" here includes any event where the aircraft is substantially damaged, most of which involve no fatalities at all.
• A fatality risk of 0.06 per million flights. This IATA measure estimates how often a passenger on a random flight would be on one where someone died.
• The rate has improved over the long run: the five-year average for 2020 to 2024 was one accident every 810,000 flights, against one every 456,000 for 2011 to 2015.

Put simply: you could fly every day for many thousands of years before being statistically likely to be on a flight with a fatal accident.

Why it feels so much more likely

If the odds are this low, why does the fear feel so real?

• Rare events make the news precisely because they're rare. A single accident is covered worldwide for days. The roughly 100,000 flights that land safely every day never are.
• Your brain estimates risk by memory, not math. Vivid images stick, and the easier something is to picture, the more likely it feels. Psychologists call this the availability heuristic.
• You're not in control. Many people who drive without a second thought feel unsafe as a passenger, even though the risk of the drive to the airport is usually higher than the flight itself.

What makes flying so safe

Aviation safety is not luck. It's a system built in layers, so that no single failure can bring a flight down:

• Two trained pilots, each able to fly and land the aircraft alone, who cross-check each other's actions.
• Redundancy everywhere. Critical systems such as hydraulics, electrics and flight instruments exist two, three or four times over.
• Engines built to keep going. Twin-engine airliners are certified to fly safely on one engine, and pilots practice engine failure regularly in the simulator.
• Constant maintenance. Daily walk-around checks, and heavy checks where aircraft are opened up panel by panel.
• Air traffic control keeps aircraft separated, with onboard collision avoidance systems as a backup.
• A worldwide learning loop. Every incident anywhere is investigated, and the lessons are applied to every airline.

Which part of a flight is riskiest?

Takeoff, climb, approach and landing account for most accidents, which is why they are the most rehearsed minutes in a pilot's career. Before every takeoff, the crew briefs exactly what they would do if anything changed. Cruise, when most turbulence happens, is the calmest part of the flight from a safety point of view.

Frequently asked questions

Is flying safer than driving?

Per kilometre or mile travelled, commercial flying is far safer than driving. For most trips, the riskiest part of your journey is the road to the airport.

Are some airlines safer than others?

Safety standards and records do vary by region and operator. Major airlines in most of the world operate to very high standards, regulated and audited internationally. If it reassures you, look up whether your airline is IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) registered.

Are older planes less safe?

Not when they're properly maintained. Planes age by maintenance cycles, not birthdays: parts are inspected and replaced on strict schedules, so an older aircraft is held to the same standards as a new one.

What should I do if a crash in the news makes me afraid to fly?

It's a very normal reaction. Read our guide for when there's a plane crash in the news before your flight: it explains why one accident doesn't change your odds, and how to step back from the coverage.